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Socio-Economic Indicators

The socio-economic indicators are derived from the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) in Kenya. These data are collected every month at over 70 different wards across Kenya with the aim to monitor drought-related socio-economic conditions of the country. These data cover a large variety of different indicators related to food consumption, household-level coping strategies, livestock prices and infant health. As the data is collected monthly, it allows for the tracking of changes over time and the identification of trends.

Food Consumption Score

The Food Consumption Score (FCS) is a key food security indicator developed by the World Food Programme (WFP). It assesses the dietary diversity, food frequency, and nutritional value of food consumed by a household in the past 7 days. It is widely used in drought early warning systems to monitor food access and vulnerability.

Coping Strategies

The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) is a widely used tool to assess stress levels within households and communities. There are two main types: Consumption-based CSI, which focuses on short-term behaviors like reducing meal portions; and Livelihood-based CSI, which captures longer-term and often more damaging strategies such as selling productive assets.

Livestock

Livestock prices are key indicators of drought impacts, reflecting pastoral distress through falling values and worsening terms of trade (livestock-to-grain price ratios) in this case the ratio of goats to maize. Monitoring these trends helps policymakers respond early to protect livelihoods and food security.

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Food Consumption Score

The Food Consumption Score (FCS) is a key food security indicator developed by the World Food Programme (WFP) to assess the dietary diversity, food frequency, and nutritional value of food consumed by a household in the past 7 days. It is widely used in drought early warning systems to monitor food access and vulnerability (more info). Households report the types of food groups consumed during the last week. Each group is assigned a weight reflecting its nutritional quality. Nutrient-dense foods like meat, fish, dairy are given higher weights, while staple and energy-dense foods like cereals or oils have lower weights.

The FCS is calculated by:
1. Counting the number of days each food group was consumed (max 7)
2. Multiplying each by its assigned weight
3. Summing the weighted scores

The FCS is categorised into three levels:
- Poor: 0–21
- Borderline: 21.5–35
- Good: >35
A declining FCS can indicate worsening food security due to drought or other shocks.

Food consumption per county over time
Food consumption scores across counties

The heatmap below shows the percentage of households in each county where the food consumption score was in the emergency category (0-21).

Coping Strategy Index (CSI)

The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) is a widely used tool in humanitarian and development contexts to assess household food security and resilience. It captures the frequency and severity of strategies households adopt when facing food shortages. There are two main types:

Consumption-based CSI: Focuses on short-term coping behaviour like reducing meal portions or skipping meals
Livelihood-based CSI: Captures longer-term and often more damaging strategies such as selling productive assets, withdrawing children from school, spending savings or selling land

The CSI provides a standardized way to gauge stress levels within communities, often complementing other food security measures like the Food Consumption Score. It helps guide timely responses and monitor the impact of shocks like droughts which negatively affect household wellbeing.

CSI Consumption

The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) – Consumption is a widely used tool to assess household food security, particularly in emergency or food crisis contexts. It measures the frequency and severity of behaviors households engage in when they do not have enough food or money to buy food. These behaviors—called coping strategies—are proxies for food insecurity and help identify households under stress.

The CSI includes five common strategies:

• Eating less-preferred or less-expensive food
• Borrowing food or relying on help from friends or relatives
• Reducing the number of meals eaten per day
• Reducing portion sizes at mealtime
• Restricting consumption by adults so small children can eat

Each strategy is multiplied by its severity weight and summed to give a CSI score for the household. The higher the score, the more severe the food insecurity.

CSI-Consumption per county over time
CSI Consumption across counties

The heatmap below shows the percentage of households in each county where 'Emergency' consumption-based coping strategies were deployed.

CSI Livelihood

CSI-Livelihood asks whether, in the last 30 days, the household engaged in specific coping strategies in response to a lack of food or money to buy food.

These strategies are grouped into three increasingly severe categories:

• Stress coping strategies (least severe): Borrowing money, spending savings and selling non-productive assets (e.g. jewellery)
• Crisis coping strategies (moderate severity): Selling productive assets (e.g. livestock, land, etc), taking children out of school and reducing non-food expenses
• Emergency coping strategies (most severe): Selling last female animal

CSI-Livelihood per county over time
CSI-Livelihood across counties

The heatmap below shows the percentage of households in each county where 'Emergency' livelihood-based coping strategies were deployed.

Livestock Price Trends

In pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, livestock is a key source of income and food security. During droughts, changes in livestock markests especially falling prices can reveal signs of stress. Monitoring these trends help identify when and where communities are facing challenges, enabling timely interventions to support livelihoods and food security.

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Early Warning of Livelihood Stress

When drought conditions start, pasture and water resources become scarce. As a result, individuals are forced to sell livestock in poor condition and sometimes in large numbers. This oversupply leads to price drops, especially for small ruminants like goats and sheep. These price changes act as early warning signs that communities are under pressure.

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Terms of Trade

During drought conditions, livestock prices usually fall while the price of essential goods like cereals rises. The terms of trade (TOT) measures how much livestock can be exchanged for these goods. A common measure is the number of kilograms of maize one goat can buy. A declining TOT indicates reduced purchasing power and worsening food security.

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Supporting Timely Drought Response

Tracking livestock prices helps target interventions more effectively. Rapid price drops can indicate when communities need immediate support, such as food aid or veterinary services. When integrated with other indicators like rainfall and vegetation health, it strengthens early warning systems and response planning.

Explore Livestock Indicators

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Livestock Prices

Track price trends for cattle, goats, sheep, and other livestock across different counties and time periods.

Explore Livestock Prices →
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Terms of Trade

Analyze the relative value of livestock products compared to essential goods and services, measuring purchasing power over time.

Explore Terms of Trade →

Understanding livestock price trends

Monitoring livestock prices over time is a critical tool for understanding the economic well-being of agro-pastoral communities. Using data from the National Drought Monitoring Agency (NDMA), we can track changes in livestock prices across counties from 2020 to May 2025. These price trends are more than just numbers, they can be used as economic health indicators where rising prices can indicate high market demand while falling prices may indicate coping strategies due to drought.

• Monthly Average Price: This shows the average price of an animal for a month in that year (e.g the average price of a goat in January 2021)
• 25th Percentile: This shows the price that 25% of the animals sold were below that price. It represents the lower end of normal market prices
• Long Term Average: This is the average price of an animal for a particular across the entire period (e.g the average price of a goat for all Januaries i.e (Jan 2020 + Jan 2021)/2)
• 75th Percentile: It means that 75% of animals sold were below that price. It represents the higher end of normal market prices

Livestock Price Trends across counties

Understanding Terms of Trade

Terms of Trade (ToT) is an indicator that shows the exchange value between livestock and food items. It is typically defined as the price of one goat divided by the price of a kilogram of maize, this tells us how many kilograms of maize can be bought after selling one goat. A higher ToT means more maize can be purchased per goat sold, improving household food access,on the other hand a lower ToT means less food for the same animal, signaling distress e.g drought.

Terms of Trade across counties

Terms of Trade -

Terms of Trade per County

The plot below shows the monthly average terms of trade for each county, the extensions of the trend lines indicate the minimum and maximum values for that month across the years.

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